Predictive abilities comparison from multiple dynamic prediction models

布里氏评分 计算机科学 接收机工作特性 背景(考古学) 机器学习 数据挖掘 预测建模 生物 古生物学
作者
C Moreau,Jérémie Riou,Marine Roux
出处
期刊:Statistical Methods in Medical Research [SAGE Publishing]
卷期号:32 (9): 1811-1822
标识
DOI:10.1177/09622802231188521
摘要

With the development of personalized medicine, the study of individual prognosis appears to be a major contemporary scientific issue. Dynamic models are particularly well adapted to such studies by allowing some potential changes in the follow-up to be taken into account. In particular, this leads to more accurate predictions by updating the available information throughout the patient monitoring. Some mathematical tools have been developed to quantify and compare the effectiveness of dynamic predictions using dynamic versions of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the Brier score in the competing risks setting. Nevertheless, only two predictive abilities can be compared. This may be too restrictive in a clinical context where more and more information can be collected during patient follow-up thanks to recent technological advances. Here we propose a new procedure that allows multiple comparisons of the predictive abilities of different biomarkers, based on the dynamic area under the receiver operating characteristic curve or Brier score. Performances of our testing procedure were assessed by simulations. Moreover, a motivating application in hepatology will be presented. Finally, this work compares more than two dynamic predictive abilities of biomarkers and is available via R functions on GitHub.
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