Machine learning models of plasma proteomic data predict mood in chronic stroke and tie it to aberrant peripheral immune responses

Post-stroke depression is common, long-lasting and associated with severe morbidity and death, but mechanisms are not well-understood. We used a broad proteomics panel and developed a machine learning algorithm to determine whether plasma protein data can predict mood in people with chronic stroke, and to identify proteins and pathways associated with mood. We used Olink to measure 1,196 plasma proteins in 85 participants aged 25 and older who were between 5 months and 9 years after ischemic stroke. Mood was assessed with the Stroke Impact Scale mood questionnaire (SIS3). Machine learning multivariable regression models were constructed to estimate SIS3 using proteomics data, age, and time since stroke. We also dichotomized participants into better mood (SIS3 > 63) or worse mood (SIS3 ≤ 63) and analyzed candidate proteins. Machine learning models verified that there is indeed a relationship between plasma proteomic data and mood in chronic stroke, with the most accurate prediction of mood occurring when we add age and time since stroke. At the individual protein level, no single protein or set of proteins predicts mood. But by using univariate analyses of the proteins most highly associated with mood we produced a model of chronic post-stroke depression. We utilized the fact that this list contained many proteins that are also implicated in major depression. Also, over 80% of immune proteins that correlate with mood were higher with worse mood, implicating a broadly overactive immune system in chronic post-stroke depression. Finally, we used a comprehensive literature review of major depression and acute post-stroke depression. We propose that in chronic post-stroke depression there is over-activation of the immune response that then triggers changes in serotonin activity and neuronal plasticity leading to depressed mood.