IDF Diabetes Atlas: Global estimates for the prevalence of diabetes for 2015 and 2040

医学 糖尿病 逻辑回归 全球卫生 置信区间 老年学 人口学 人口 环境卫生 内科学 公共卫生 内分泌学 社会学 护理部
作者
Katherine Ogurtsova,João Diogo Da Rocha Fernandes,Yadi Huang,Ute Linnenkamp,Leonor Guariguata,N.H. Cho,David Cavan,Jonathan E. Shaw,Lydia Makaroff
出处
期刊:Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice [Elsevier BV]
卷期号:128: 40-50 被引量:6582
标识
DOI:10.1016/j.diabres.2017.03.024
摘要

Abstract

Aim

To produce current estimates of the national, regional and global impact of diabetes for 2015 and 2040.

Methods

A systematic literature review was conducted to identify data sources on the prevalence of diabetes from studies conducted in the period from 1990 to 2015. An analytic hierarchy process was used to select the most appropriate studies for each country, and estimates for countries without data were modelled using extrapolation from similar countries that had available data. A logistic regression model was used to generate smoothed age-specific estimates, which were applied to UN population estimates.

Results

540 data sources were reviewed, of which 196 sources from 111 countries were selected. In 2015 it was estimated that there were 415 million (uncertainty interval: 340–536 million) people with diabetes aged 20–79years, 5.0 million deaths attributable to diabetes, and the total global health expenditure due to diabetes was estimated at 673 billion US dollars. Three quarters (75%) of those with diabetes were living in low- and middle-income countries. The number of people with diabetes aged 20–79years was predicted to rise to 642 million (uncertainty interval: 521–829 million) by 2040.

Conclusion

Diabetes prevalence, deaths attributable to diabetes, and health expenditure due to diabetes continue to rise across the globe with important social, financial and health system implications.
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