Prognostic implication of methylation-based circulating tumor DNA detection prior to surgery in stage I non-small cell lung cancer

Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) positivity at diagnosis, which is associated with worse outcomes in multiple solid tumors including stage I–III non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), may have utility to guide (neo)adjuvant therapy. In this retrospective study, 260 patients with clinical stage I NSCLC (180 adenocarcinoma, 80 squamous cell carcinoma) were allocated (2:1) to high- and low-risk groups based on relapse versus disease-free status ≤5 years post-surgery. We evaluated the association of preoperative ctDNA detection by a plasma-only targeted methylation-based multi-cancer early detection (MCED) test with NSCLC relapse ≤5 years post-surgery in the overall population, followed by histology-specific subgroup analyses. Across clinical stage I patients, preoperative ctDNA detection did not associate with relapse within 5 years post-surgery. Sub-analyses confined to lung adenocarcinoma suggested a histology-specific association between ctDNA detection and outcome. In this group, ctDNA positivity tended to associate with relapse within 2 years, suggesting prognostic implications of MCED test positivity may be histology- and time-dependent in stage I NSCLC. Preoperative ctDNA detection was associated with upstaging of clinical stage I to pathological stage II–III NSCLC. Our findings suggest preoperative ctDNA detection in patients with resectable clinical stage I NSCLC using MCED, a pan-cancer screening test developed for use in an asymptomatic population, has no detectable prognostic value for relapse ≤5 years post-surgery. MCED detection may be associated with early adenocarcinoma relapse and increased pathological upstaging rates in stage I NSCLC. However, given the exploratory nature of these findings, independent validation is required.