Distinct depressive symptom trajectories are associated with incident diabetes among Chinese middle-aged and older adults: The China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study

Previous studies have reported that depression and depressive symptom are associated with diabetes incident. However, the association between long-term depressive symptom patterns and risk of diabetes remains unknown. The aim of present study was to evaluate the association between depressive symptom trajectories and risk of diabetes. We used data of 8806 participants (≥45 years old) from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). Trajectories of depressive symptom were identified by latent mixture modeling. Multivariable logistic regression model was used to examine the association of depressive symptom trajectories with diabetes. Five depressive symptom trajectories were identified, characterizing by maintaining a low CES-D scores throughout the follow-up (low-stable; 3227 participants [36.65%]); maintaining a moderate CES-D scores throughout the follow-up (moderate-stable; 3402 participants [38.63%]); moderate starting CES-D scores then increasing scores (moderate-increasing; 681 participants [7.73%%]); high starting CES-D scores but then decreasing scores (high-decreasing; 1061 participants [12.05%]); and maintained high CES-D scores throughout the follow-up (high-stable; 435 participants [4.94%]). During 2015 to 2018 (Wave 3 to Wave 4), a total of 312 respondents experienced diabetes. Compared with participants in the low-stable depressive symptom trajectory, those following a high-decreasing (ORs = 2.04; 95%CIs 1.48–2.98) and high-stable depressive symptom trajectories (ORs = 3.26; 95%CIs 2.06–5.16) were at substantially higher risk of developing diabetes. Individuals with high-decreasing and high-stable depressive symptom trajectories over time were associated with increased risk of incident diabetes. Long-term depressive symptom may be a strong predictor of having diabetes.