Using a Convolutional Neural Network to Predict Remission of Diabetes After Gastric Bypass Surgery: Machine Learning Study From the Scandinavian Obesity Surgery Register

Background Prediction of diabetes remission is an important topic in the evaluation of patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) before bariatric surgery. Several high-quality predictive indices are available, but artificial intelligence algorithms offer the potential for higher predictive capability. Objective This study aimed to construct and validate an artificial intelligence prediction model for diabetes remission after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery. Methods Patients who underwent surgery from 2007 to 2017 were included in the study, with collection of individual data from the Scandinavian Obesity Surgery Registry (SOReg), the Swedish National Patients Register, the Swedish Prescribed Drugs Register, and Statistics Sweden. A 7-layer convolution neural network (CNN) model was developed using 80% (6446/8057) of patients randomly selected from SOReg and 20% (1611/8057) of patients for external testing. The predictive capability of the CNN model and currently used scores (DiaRem, Ad-DiaRem, DiaBetter, and individualized metabolic surgery) were compared. Results In total, 8057 patients with T2D were included in the study. At 2 years after surgery, 77.09% achieved pharmacological remission (n=6211), while 63.07% (4004/6348) achieved complete remission. The CNN model showed high accuracy for cessation of antidiabetic drugs and complete remission of T2D after gastric bypass surgery. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the CNN model for pharmacological remission was 0.85 (95% CI 0.83-0.86) during validation and 0.83 for the final test, which was 9%-12% better than the traditional predictive indices. The AUC for complete remission was 0.83 (95% CI 0.81-0.85) during validation and 0.82 for the final test, which was 9%-11% better than the traditional predictive indices. Conclusions The CNN method had better predictive capability compared to traditional indices for diabetes remission. However, further validation is needed in other countries to evaluate its external generalizability.