Dynamics and scenarios of carbon emissions in China’s construction industry

Given the major contribution of the construction industry to carbon emissions in China, scientific prediction of carbon emissions in China’s construction industry is important for creating carbon reduction policies, and examining whether China can achieve its 2020 carbon intensity target in this sector. This paper investigates the influence of different economic growth rates and different carbon reduction technology policy factors on carbon emissions, and carbon intensity of GDP by a system dynamics method. The results show that carbon emissions are mainly determined by indirect emissions and increase with an increase in industrial GDP. A higher economic growth rate will lead to more carbon emissions, whereas the carbon intensity will decrease with an increase in economic growth rate. Promoting carbon reduction technology development can mitigate carbon emissions and intensity. We assume a conservative rate of economic growth, a 2% reduction relative to the base scenario level; meanwhile, the impact of carbon reduction policy on the decrease in the carbon emission factor is assumed to be 5%. Carbon emissions are lowest under the two assumptions. In all scenarios, the 40–45% reduction in carbon intensity level of 2005 is accomplished. Policies encouraging low-carbon technology would help achieve the objectives of carbon mitigation.