Asymmetrical dynamics of epidemic propagation and awareness diffusion in multiplex networks

流行病模型 统计物理学 复杂网络 扩散 计算机科学 传输(电信) 蒙特卡罗方法 计量经济学 风险分析(工程) 物理 数学 统计 医学 环境卫生 电信 人口 万维网 热力学
作者
Mengfeng Sun,Yizhou Tao,Xinchu Fu
出处
期刊:Chaos [American Institute of Physics]
卷期号:31 (9) 被引量:17
标识
DOI:10.1063/5.0061086
摘要

To better explore asymmetrical interaction between epidemic spreading and awareness diffusion in multiplex networks, we distinguish susceptibility and infectivity between aware and unaware individuals, relax the degree of immunization, and take into account three types of generation mechanisms of individual awareness. We use the probability trees to depict the transitions between distinct states for nodes and then write the evolution equation of each state by means of the microscopic Markovian chain approach (MMCA). Based on the MMCA, we theoretically analyze the possible steady states and calculate the critical threshold of epidemics, related to the structure of epidemic networks, the awareness diffusion, and their coupling configuration. The achieved analytical results of the mean-field approach are consistent with those of the numerical Monte Carlo simulations. Through the theoretical analysis and numerical simulations, we find that global awareness can reduce the final scale of infection when the regulatory factor of the global awareness ratio is less than the average degree of the epidemic network but it cannot alter the onset of epidemics. Furthermore, the introduction of self-awareness originating from infected individuals not only reduces the epidemic prevalence but also raises the epidemic threshold, which tells us that it is crucial to enhance the early warning of symptomatic individuals during pandemic outbreaks. These results give us a more comprehensive and deep understanding of the complicated interaction between epidemic transmission and awareness diffusion and also provide some practical and effective recommendations for the prevention and control of epidemics.
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