What drives the spatial heterogeneity of cropping patterns in the Northeast China: The natural environment, the agricultural economy, or policy?

Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamic of crop cover types and the driving forces of cropping patterns in the Northeast China (NEC) is essential for establishing suitable and sustainable cropping patterns that are adapted to local conditions, and for promoting the optimal use of black soil resources. Here, we classified the major grain crop cover types and investigated their spatiotemporal dynamic in the NEC by combining multi-source remote sensing imagery and phenological information based on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. A number of typical cropping patterns from 2017 to 2021 were defined and extracted, and the characteristics of their spatial heterogeneity were analyzed. Driving mechanisms for the spatial heterogeneity of cropping patterns were revealed using Geodetector. The results concluded that over the past five years (2017–2021), there has been a shift from soybean to maize in the NEC, while rice has remained stable in terms of spatiotemporal dynamics. Seven dominant cropping patterns showed high spatial heterogeneity and positive spatial agglomeration. The center of gravity of the cropping pattern shifted southwards as the frequency of maize planting increased, while the center of gravity shifted northwards as the frequency of soybean planting increased, while the rice cropping pattern remained stable. The interaction between black-soil productivity index (BPI) and total grain income trend (TGIT) exhibits the most pronounced impact on the spatial heterogeneity of cropping patterns, with a q statistic of 0.523. Following closely are the interactions of soybean subsidies trend (SST), rice subsidies trend (RST), and maize subsidies trend (MST) with TGIT, with q statistics of 0.481, 0.472, and 0.452, respectively. Among the seven dominant cropping patterns, the soybean-based cropping pattern had the highest level of TGIT and BPI, followed by the maize-based cropping pattern, while the rice-based cropping pattern had the lowest level. All of the natural environmental, agri-economic and policy factors have a synergistic effect in contributing to the spatial heterogeneity of cropping patterns. Natural environmental factors determine the overall spatial distribution of cropping patterns in the NEC, while economic and policy factors combine to influence farmers' decisions, resulting in diverse regional cropping patterns. It is recommended that maize-soybean rotations such as Maize-Soybean Alternate Cropping (MSAC) and Maize-Soybean Rotational Cropping (MSRC) should be promoted, especially in the central and southern regions of the NEC, to meet agricultural market demand and stabilize soil productivity.