Predictive value of insulin resistance metabolic score for cardiovascular disease in Chinese arthritis patients: a prospective cohort study

Abstract Objectives Although patients with arthritis have significantly increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, effective prediction tools remain limited. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of the Metabolic Score for Insulin Resistance (METS-IR) for CVD events among Chinese patients with arthritis. Methods Using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), we conducted a 7-year prospective cohort study (2011–2018) involving 1,059 patients with arthritis. The primary exposure was baseline METS-IR, and the primary outcome was incident CVD. Multivariate Cox regression models were used to analyze the association between METS-IR and CVD risk, adjusting for demographic characteristics and lifestyle factors. Results After adjusting for confounding factors, each quartile increase in METS-IR was associated with a 36% increased risk of CVD (HR = 1.36,95%CI : 1.14–1.61, p< 0.001). Compared with the lowest quartile, the highest quartile showed a 63% increased risk (HR = 1.63,95%CI : 1.12–2.37, p< 0.05), demonstrating a significant dose-response relationship (p for trend < 0.05). Conclusion METS-IR serves as an effective tool for predicting CVD risk among Chinese patients with arthritis, providing new strategies for early risk identification and prevention.