Evaluating the impacts of land use change on ecosystem service values under multiple scenarios in the Hunshandake region of China

Changes in land use in an agro-pastoral region affect the delivery of ecosystem services. The trajectory of future land use change and its impacts on human society are not yet well understood, which poses a challenge to efforts to balance the socioeconomic development with the supply of ecosystem services. Taking the Hunshandake region for a case study, we developed four land use scenarios, and projected the future land use patterns under those scenarios using the GeoSOS-FLUS model. We then assessed the ecosystem service values (ESV) using a modification of the equivalent-coefficient method that accounts for differences in net primary production, and explored the impacts of land use change on ESV from 2018 to 2030. We found important land use conversions among the forest, grassland, and cropland uses, mainly in the southern part of our study area. The presence of ESV change hotspots and cold spots suggested that the changes were clustered in the southeastern part. The ESV gain and loss matrix showed that the land use changes under a scenario that prioritized ecosystem services and the comprehensive development scenario increased ESV from 2018 to 2030 with the conversion of cropland to forest. Our results provide important knowledge to inform land use decisions and facilitate sustainable development in the Hunshandake region.