Fertility and Female Employment: Problems of Causal Direction

Seemingly contradictory results have been reported recently on the causal relationship between fertility and female employment. Data from a panel study of income dynamics are used to investigate 4 possible explanations of the contradictions: 1) Multicollinearity in nonrecursive models. 2) Discrepancies between attitudes of intention and behavior. 3) Misspecification of models. 4) Differences between static and dynamic models. All 4 explanations are pertinent to the controversy. It is found that the dominant effects are from fertility to employment in the short run and from employment to fertility in the long run. Multicollinearity often is a serious problem in nonrecursive models. Dynamic models are much more informative than static models. Plans generally seem to be consequences more than determinants of behavior. Results (sometimes) depend upon how variables are measured, upon what time intervals are used, and upon aggregate trends and cycles and historical circumstances. Other substantive findings and general methodological issures are discussed briefly.