Synergistic effects of previous winter NAO and ENSO on the spring dust activities in North China

Abstract. Dust plays an important role in influencing global weather and climate via impacting the Earth's radiative balance. Based on the atmospheric and oceanic datasets during 1980–2022, the impacts of preceding winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the following spring dust activities over North China are explored. It is found that both NAO and ENSO exert significant effects in influencing the dust activities over North China, particularly during their negative phases. A synergistic influence on the dust activities in North China is observed when both NAO and ENSO are in negative phase, with their combined impacts exceeding that of either factor alone. The previous winter NAO exhibits significant impacts on the sea surface temperatures (SST) in the North Atlantic, associating with an anomalous SST tripole pattern. Owing to the persistence of SST, these anomalies can extend into the following spring, when anomalous atmospheric teleconnection wave trains would be induced, thereby influencing the dust activities in North China. ENSO, on the one hand, directly impacts dust activities in North China by modulating the circulation in the Western North Pacific (WNP). Moreover, ENSO enhances the NAO's effect on the North Atlantic SST, explaining their synergistic effects on the dust activities over North China. This study explains the combined role of NAO and ENSO on the dust weather over North China, providing one season ahead signals for the forecast of spring dust activities in North China.