Evolution characteristics and multi-scenario prediction of habitat quality in Yulin City based on PLUS and InVEST models

Abstract As a major energy city in China, Yulin City has faced huge challenges to the ecological environment with its rapid economic development and rapid urbanization. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the impact of land use changes on habitat quality. Based on three periods of land use data in Yulin City in 1995, 2005 and 2015, the PLUS model was used to simulate the land use changes in 2015. The measured kappa coefficient was 0.8859, which met the simulation accuracy requirements. By setting development zone boundaries and adjusting parameters, three progressive scenarios are designed to predict the spatial distribution of land use in Yulin City in 2035. The InVEST model was used to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of Yulin City’s habitat quality in the past 20 years and evaluate the distribution of Yulin City’s habitat quality under three scenarios after 20 years. The results are as follows: (1) During the study period, construction land in Yulin City expanded rapidly, with an area increase of 380.87 km 2 in 20 years, and ecological land gradually shrank. (2) The land use simulation results of Yulin City under various scenarios in 2035 show that future land use changes in Yulin City will mainly be concentrated in the central and western regions. (3) During the study period, the habitat quality of Yulin City was at a medium level and the overall habitat quality showed a downward trend. Spatially, the degree of habitat quality degradation in Yulin City showed a characteristic of gradually decreasing from West to East. (4) By 2035, under the scenario of suitable urban economic development, Yulin City’s habitat quality has been improved to a certain extent, which not only protects ecological security but also meets the demand for construction land for urban development. The results of this study help the government better understand the evolution of land use and habitat quality in Yulin City in the past 20 years, and provide theoretical support and reference for the formulation of Yulin City’s ecological environment protection policies and the implementation of ecological protection work under the current land spatial planning.