Application of shared socioeconomic pathways at the subnational level: carbon emission forecasts in Qinghai Province, China, integrating socioeconomic models

Forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is necessary to estimate their climate impact and the required mitigation efforts. However, existing scenario frameworks are not consistent and limit the comparability of projection studies. In this study, the "Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology" model was combined with the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Model forecasts were calculated for each SSP from 2020 to 2060 in Qinghai Province, an underdeveloped, carbon-sink-rich region in China. Total CO2 emissions in Qinghai Province consistently exhibited an upward then downward trend, with large differences between SSPs in the peak date and maximum value of total CO2 emissions. Considering the current socioeconomic development status and total carbon emission trends in Qinghai Province, SSP1 and SSP2 were the most suitable pathways, providing balance between carbon emissions reduction and population well-being.