Early warning of heavy metals contamination in agricultural soils: Spatio-temporal distribution and future trends in the Hexi Corridor

Conducting risk and early warning assessments of heavy metals (HMs) pollution in agricultural soils holds significant importance for pollution prevention and sustainable agricultural development. Early warning studies on heavy metal contamination of agricultural soils in oases in arid zones are rare in previous studies, therefore, this study carried out spatial and temporal simulation and early warning studies on the environmental capacity of agricultural soils in the Hexi Corridor based on field monitoring data and remote sensing technology and other methods. The results revealed that agricultural soils have been affected by human activities, leaving HMs at a moderate pollution level. The mean environmental capacity indices for Cr, Ni, Cu, Zn, As and Pb showed that they all belonged to the medium-capacity state, and 7.01 % of the sampling points being overloaded and in the low capacity for As. Cr, Ni, Zn and As were found in the moderate and high capacity zones located in the study area's western part, and the spatial distribution was basically the same. HMs in the middle parts area were dominated by low to medium capacity status, which may be related to agricultural activities such as application of fertilizers and pesticides and sewage irrigation. Based on the soil dynamic capacity model, it was found that in the next 20 years, HMs showed a decrease of 70–80 %, and the soil environment dynamic capacity was smaller than both the static and existing capacity, and it showed a decreasing trend with the change of time, which indicated that the soil's capacity for pollutants in the study area would be reduced if no pollution control measures were taken. Risk warning results showed that the overall spatial distribution pattern of the probability of pollution in the study area during the next 10 and 20 years was lower in the west and the northern part of Wuwei City, and higher in the middle part. This study suggests constructing a management system of "pollution evaluation - source treatment - risk early warning" for heavy metal contaminated sites, formulating corresponding policies and early warning measures, strengthening the research and development of monitoring, remediation, and treatment technologies, and realizing the prevention and control of agricultural soil pollution and sustainable development in the study area.