Heterogeneous Effects of CPAP in Non-Sleepy OSA on CVD Outcomes: Post-hoc Machine Learning Analysis of the ISAACC Trial (ECSACT Study)

Rationale: Randomized controlled trials of continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) therapy for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention among patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) have been largely neutral. However, given OSA is a heterogeneous disease, there may be unidentified subgroups demonstrating differential treatment effects. Objectives: Apply a novel data-drive approach to identify non-sleepy OSA subgroups with heterogeneous effects of CPAP on CVD outcomes within the ISAACC study. Methods: Participants were randomly partitioned into two datasets. One for training (70%) our machine learning model and a second (30%) for validation of significant findings. Model-based recursive partitioning was applied to identify subgroups with heterogeneous treatment effects. Survival analysis was conducted to compare treatment (CPAP versus usual care [UC]) outcomes within subgroups. Results: A total of 1,224 non-sleepy OSA participants were included. Of fifty-five features entered into our model only two appeared in the final model (i.e., average OSA event duration and hypercholesterolemia). Among participants at or below the model-derived average event duration threshold (19.5 seconds), CPAP was protective for a composite of CVD events (training Hazard Ratio [HR] 0.46, p=0.002). For those with longer event duration (>19.5 seconds), an additional split occurred by hypercholesterolemia status. Among participants with longer event duration and hypercholesterolemia, CPAP resulted in more CVD events compared to UC (training HR 2.24, p=0.011). The point estimate for this harmful signal was also replicated in the testing dataset (HR 1.83, p=0.118). Conclusions: We discovered subgroups of non-sleepy OSA participants within the ISAACC study with heterogeneous effects of CPAP. Among the training dataset, those with longer OSA event duration and hypercholesterolemia had nearly 2.5-times more CVD events with CPAP compared to UC, while those with shorter OSA event duration had roughly half the rate of CVD events if randomized to CPAP.