Spatial-temporal multi-factor decomposition and two-dimensional decoupling analysis of China's carbon emissions: From the perspective of whole process governance

Carbon governance is critical to China's contribution to the economic and social green transformation. Combining various factors along the pathway from carbon generation to treatment processes is necessary for the effective control of carbon emissions. This study uses a whole-process governance perspective to explore the factors influencing carbon emissions in China and identify the carbon emission decoupling status at different economic levels. Carbon emissions were decomposed into three dimensions: integrated process control (IPC), end-of-pipe treatment (EPT), and economic scale (ESS). Based on data from 30 Chinese provinces from to 2001–2019, a temporal-spatial factor decomposition model, a two-dimensional decoupling model, and a decoupling contribution index model were developed. The findings indicate that IPC is a crucial link in carbon reduction, and that ESS drives carbon emissions, followed by EPT. The technical intensity effect (ΔRI) is the key to driving carbon reduction. In addition, economic effect (ΔGP) and ΔRI are the main contributors to the gap in carbon emissions between different regions and the national average. Carbon emissions and economic growth show decoupling trends, however decoupling development lags behind economic development. IPC constitutes the main link for achieving decoupling, driven primarily by ΔRI. Based on these results, policy recommendations to enhance the carbon emission reduction potential and shorten the regional carbon emission gap are derived, providing new perspectives for synergistically achieving carbon emission reduction and high-quality economic growth.