Effectiveness and risk of initial carbon quota allocation principle under the uncertainty of the Chinese electricity market

The carbon market's effectiveness in deep decarburization and energy transition has been widely proven. However, as other industries join the carbon market in China, the uncertainty and impact of it on the power industry are still under explored. Here, we define the industry-wide scenarios which power industry might confront in the carbon market. Then, we compare its economic output, market activity and environmental impact under initial carbon quota allocation principles based on efficiency and grandfather methods by the comprehensive evaluation model of energy and carbon markets combined with inverse DEA method. Our results show that when the power industry is in an advantageous position, the efficiency method is fairer and more efficient than the grandfather method. The potential economic output rate has more than doubled compared to that of the grandfather method. Market activity and emission reduction potential are 7% and 25% more than that in the grandfather principle, respectively. Nevertheless, when the power industry is in a disadvantageous position, the efficiency method leads to an imbalance between power supply and demand in the market and power shortages in 19 regions. Then the trading activity of the power market drops by 12%, resulting in serious economic loss, especially in China's eastern region (−7.29%). The economic risk caused by the grandfather method has been significantly reduced than that of the efficiency method. And there may be greater potential risks under the efficiency method. This study identifies the potential challenges and obstacles of future carbon market and addresses the urgency of policy to tackle this issue to facilitate a carbon market that operates robustly under uncertainty. • The energy and carbon market model combined with inverse DEA is employed. • Risks of different allocation principles under uncertainty scenarios have been identifies. • Efficiency method caused 53.22% power shortage under disadvantage scenario. • Efficiency method caused −7.29% economic losses in eastern china under disadvantage scenario.