Identification of a Twelve-Gene Signature and Establishment of a Prognostic Nomogram Predicting Overall Survival for Medulloblastoma

Medulloblastoma is the common pediatric malignant tumor with poor prognosis in cerebellum. However, MB is always with clinical heterogeneity. To provide patients with more clinically beneficial treatment strategies, there is a pressing need to develop a new prognostic prediction model as a supplement to the prediction outcomes of clinical judgment.Four datasets of mRNA expression and clinical data were downloaded from gene expression omnibus (GEO) database. Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were identified and functionally enriched among GSE50161, GSE74195, GSE86574. Then we used STRING and Cytoscape to constructed and analyze protein-protein interaction network (PPI) and hub genes. Univariate cox regression analysis was performed to identify overall survival-related hub genes in an unique dataset from GSE85217 as train cohort. Lasso Cox regression model was used to construct the prognostic gene signature. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC), Kaplan-Meier curve, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis were used to assess the prognostic capacity of the twelve-gene signature. A unique dataset from GSE85217 was downloaded to further validate the results. Finally, we established the nomogram by using the gene signature and validated it with ROC curve. Gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) was carried out to further investigate its potential molecular mechanism. Besides, the twelve genes expression at the mRNA and protein levels was validated using external database such as Oncomine, cBioportal and HPA, respectively.A twelve-gene signature comprising FOXM1, NEK2, CCT2, ACTL6A, EIF4A3, CCND2, ABL1, SYNCRIP, ITGB1, NRXN2, ENAH, and UMPS was established to predict overall survival of medulloblastoma. The ROC curve showed good performance in survival prediction in both the train cohort and the validation cohort. The twelve-gene signature could stratify patients into a high risk and low risk group which had significantly different survival. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression revealed that the twelve-gene signature was an independent prognostic factor in medulloblastoma. Nomogram, which included twelve-gene signatures, was established and showed some clinical benefit.Our study identified a twelve-gene signature and established a prognostic nomogram that reliably predicts overall survival in medulloblastoma. The above results will help us to better analyze the pathogenesis and treatment of medulloblastoma in the future.