医学
蒂米
弗雷明翰风险评分
心肌梗塞
内科学
心脏病学
逻辑回归
优势比
溶栓
作者
David A. Morrow,Elliott M. Antman,Andrew Charlesworth,Richard Cairns,Sabina A. Murphy,James A. de Lemos,Robert P. Giugliano,Carolyn H. McCabe,Eugene Braunwald
出处
期刊:Circulation
[Lippincott Williams & Wilkins]
日期:2000-10-24
卷期号:102 (17): 2031-2037
被引量:1192
标识
DOI:10.1161/01.cir.102.17.2031
摘要
Background—Considerable variability in mortality risk exists among patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Complex multivariable models identify independent predictors and quantify their relative contribution to mortality risk but are too cumbersome to be readily applied in clinical practice. Methods and Results—We developed and evaluated a convenient bedside clinical risk score for predicting 30-day mortality at presentation of fibrinolytic-eligible patients with STEMI. The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score for STEMI was created as the simple arithmetic sum of independent predictors of mortality weighted according to the adjusted odds ratios from logistic regression analysis in the Intravenous nPA for Treatment of Infarcting Myocardium Early II trial (n=14 114). Mean 30-day mortality was 6.7%. Ten baseline variables, accounting for 97% of the predictive capacity of the multivariate model, constituted the TIMI risk score. The risk score showed a >40-fold graded incr...
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