Does Internet development have a spatial fluctuation spillover effect on green total factor productivity in China? A Spatial-SAR-ARCH model

Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine the spatial fluctuation spillover effect of green total factor productivity (GTFP) under the influence of Internet development. Design/methodology/approach Using panel data from 283 cities in China for the period 2003–2016, this paper explores the spatial fluctuation spillover effect of internet development on GTFP by applying the spatial autoregressive with autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model (SARspARCH). Findings The results of Moran's I test of the residual term and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) value indicate that the GTFP has a spatial fluctuation spillover effect, and the estimated results of the SARspARCH model are more accurate than the spatial autoregressive (SAR) model and the spatial autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (spARCH) model. Specifically, the internet development had a positive spatial fluctuation spillover effect on GTFP in 2003, 2011, 2012 and 2014, and the volatility spillover effect weakens the positive spillover effect of internet development on GTFP. Moreover, Internet development has a significant positive spatial fluctuation spillover effect on GTFP averagely in eastern China and internet-based cities. Research limitations/implications The results of this study provide digital solutions for policymakers in improving the level of GTFP in China, with more emphasis on regional synergistic governance to ensure growth. Originality/value This paper expands the research ideas for spatial econometric models and provides a more valuable reference for China to achieve green development.