How to reconcile land use conflicts in mega urban agglomeration? A scenario-based study in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China

With the development of global urbanization, land use conflicts have become one of the major issues hindering sustainable land use and human-environment coordination in urbanized areas. In this context, reconciliation of land use conflicts requires urgent attention. By taking the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration as a case study area, the spatial comprehensive conflict index (SCCI) was constructed to identify and evaluate land use conflicts. Besides, the impacts of rapid urbanization and terrain restriction on land use conflicts were also explored using the coupling coordination degree (CCD) model and terrain index, respectively. Then, the Dyna-CLUE model was adopted to simulate land use conflicts under three adaptive scenarios in 2030. Results show that: (1) During 2000–2015, land use conflicts in the BTH region demonstrated an overall mitigating trend, and their spatial patterns remained relatively stable, characterized by significant cluster and belt agglomeration. (2) Land use conflicts were significantly intensified in areas experiencing rapid urban-rural transformation and terrain transition, and two typical conflict zones were identified, i.e. the urban-rural interface of the Beijing-Tianjin region and the terrain transition area located in the Taihang Mountains, Yan Mountains and Bashang Plateau. (3) In 2030, land use conflicts in the BTH region manifest overall mitigation under the ecological security (ES) scenario, while demonstrating an intensifying trend under the business as usual (BAU) scenario and cropland protection (CP) scenario. Based on simulation results, land use spatial optimization modes at county level for the BTH region were formulated. In face of increasingly prominent land use conflicts globally, this study will provide a scientific reference for policymaking in pursuit of sustainable land use management for the BTH region and urban agglomerations in other parts of the world.