Applicability of a spatial computable general equilibrium model to assess the short-term economic impact of natural disasters

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have been widely used to assess the economic impact of natural disasters, but the models have not been fully validated by applying them to real disasters. This study focuses on validating a model for use in a short-run case in which the functional recovery of infrastructure and businesses occurred on a time scale of a few months. A special attempt is made to determine the parameter values of elasticity of substitutions, which play an important role in the effect on supply chains. In this study, a spatial CGE model, in which Japan is divided into nine regions, is constructed and applied to the case of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. Through this application, the best estimates of the elasticity parameters generated relatively consistent estimates of production change compared with the observed change, both in severely affected regions and in other regions.