The impact of automation on employment: just the usual structural change?

We study projected impact of automation on employment in forthcoming decade, both at macro-level and in actual (types of) sectors. Hereto, we unite an evolutionary economic model of multisectoral structural with labor economic theory. We thus get a comprehensive framework of how displacement of labor in sectors of application is compensated by intra- and intersectoral countervailing effects and notably mopped up by newly created, labor-intensive sectors. We use several reputable datasets with expert projections on employment in occupations affected by automation (and notably by introduction of robotics and AI) to pinpoint which and how sectors and occupations face employment shifts. This reveals how potential job loss due to automation in applying sectors is counterbalanced by job creation in making sectors as well in complementary and quaternary, spillover sectors. Finally, we study several macro-level scenarios on employment and find that mankind is facing the usual structural change rather than end of work. We provide recommendations on policy instruments that enhance dynamic efficiency of structural change.