An instrument for scenario-based technology roadmapping: How to assess the impacts of future changes on organisational plans

计算机科学 过程管理 过程(计算) 平面图(考古学) 方案规划 风险分析(工程) 情景分析 管理科学 知识管理 业务 工程类 营销 财务 历史 操作系统 考古
作者
Chang-Yong Lee,Bomi Song,Yongtae Park
出处
期刊:Technological Forecasting and Social Change [Elsevier BV]
卷期号:90: 285-301 被引量:35
标识
DOI:10.1016/j.techfore.2013.12.020
摘要

Scenario-based technology roadmapping offers a strong capability for strategic planning to respond to increasingly volatile environments. However, previous studies cannot guide organisations towards making robust decisions against complex future conditions since they remain conceptual and rely solely on graphical mapping tools. To counter this, we propose a systematic approach to making scenario-based technology roadmapping more robust by adding the ability to assess the impacts of future changes on organisational plans. At the heart of the suggested approach is a Bayesian network that can examine uncertainty inherent in future changes and ripple impacts resulting from interdependence among activities. The proposed approach is designed to be executed in three discrete steps: defining a roadmap topology and causal relationships via qualitative and quantitative modelling; assessing the impacts of future changes on organisational plans via current state analysis and sensitivity analysis; and finally managing plans and activities via development of plan assessment map and activity assessment map. A case study of photovoltaic cell technology is presented to show the feasibility of our method. We believe the systematic process and quantitative outcomes the suggested approach offers can facilitate responsive technology planning in the face of future uncertainties.
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