Integrating ecosystem services conservation into the optimization of urban planning policies in eco-fragile areas: A scenario-based case study

Alleviating the contradiction between land use change and natural ecosystem protection is an urgent problem that needs to be solved in the context of rapid urbanization. Urban expansion from 2015 to 2035 is simulated under three scenarios in this study using the Future Urban-Regional Environment Simulation (FUTURES) model, with Hohhot, China as the research area. Then, the value of crucial ecosystem services and the trade-offs or synergies between them are calculated for past and future periods. We find that urban expansion is dominated by the occupation of cropland and grassland, leading to the losses of ecosystem services. Especially under the economic priority (EP) scenario, food production may be reduced by up to 2.98 % and soil conservation may be reduced by up to 1.04 %. The directionality of the relationships between ecosystem services will not be reversed under any scenario. Our results also emphasize that although ecosystem services have been effectively protected under the ecological conservation (EC) scenario, it may increase the trade-off intensity among them. By considering the assessment of ecosystem services and changes in their interactions when choosing the urban expansion pattern, managers can optimize planning policies to ensure sustainable urban and community management.