Associations of body mass index trajectory, waist circumference trajectory, or both with type 2 diabetes mellitus risk in Chinese adults: The China‐PAR project

Abstract Aims To identify the trajectories of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC), and assess the associations of BMI trajectory, WC trajectory, or the two combined, with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) risk in Chinese adults. Materials and Methods This study was based on a prospective project—the Prediction for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk in China (China‐PAR). A total of 54 434 participants (39.21% men) who were measured on at least two occasions were included. Three slowly increasing trajectory patterns were identified for BMI, and four for WC, by latent mixed modelling. A nine‐category variable was derived by combining the WC trajectory (low, moderate, moderate‐high/high) and the BMI trajectory (low, moderate, high). Logistic regression models were applied to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results The risk of developing T2DM increased with elevated BMI or WC trajectory levels (all p trend <0.001). The risks were 2.85 (2.59–3.14) for high BMI trajectory and 4.34 (3.78–4.99) for high WC trajectory versus low trajectory groups, respectively. The association was more pronounced among younger individuals ( p interaction <0.001). In the joint analysis, compared to participants with low WC and BMI trajectory, those with moderate‐high/high WC combined with high BMI trajectory had the highest risk of T2DM (OR 3.96, 95% CI 3.48–4.50); even those who maintained moderate‐high/high WC but low BMI trajectory showed a higher T2DM risk (OR 3.00, 95% CI 2.31–3.91). Conclusions This study suggests that simultaneous dynamic and continuous monitoring of BMI and WC may contribute more than single measurements to predicting T2DM risk and determining preventive strategies.