Spatio-Temporal Variation and Climatic Driving Factors of Vegetation Coverage in the Yellow River Basin from 2001 to 2020 Based on kNDVI

The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is a fundamental ecological barrier in China and is one of the regions where the ecological environment is relatively fragile. Studying the spatio-temporal variations in vegetation coverage in the YRB and their driving factors through a long-time-series vegetation dataset is of great significance to eco-environmental construction and sustainable development in the YRB. In this study, we sought to characterize the spatio-temporal variation in vegetation coverage and its climatic driving factors in the YRB from 2001 to 2020 by constructing a new kernel normalized difference vegetation index (kNDVI) dataset based on MOD13 A1 V6 data from the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. Using Theil–Sen median trend analysis, the Mann–Kendall test, and the Hurst exponent, we investigated the spatio-temporal variation characteristics and future development trends of the vegetation coverage. The climatic driving factors of vegetation coverage in the YRB were obtained via partial correlation analysis and complex correlation analysis of the associations between kNDVI and both temperature and precipitation. The results reveal the following: The spatial distribution pattern of kNDVI in the YRB showed that vegetation coverage was high in the southeast and low in the northwest. Vegetation coverage fluctuated from 2001 to 2020, with a main significant trend of increasing growth at a rate of 0.0995/5a. The response of vegetation to climatic factors was strong in the YRB, with a stronger response to precipitation than to temperature. Additionally, the main driving factors of vegetation coverage in the YRB were found to be non-climatic factors, which were mainly distributed in Henan, southern Shaanxi, Shanxi, western Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and eastern Gansu. The areas driven by climatic factors were mainly distributed in northern Shaanxi, Shandong, Qinghai, western Gansu, northeastern Inner Mongolia, and Sichuan. Our findings have implications for ecosystem restoration and sustainable development in the YRB.