An improved empirical model for rapid and accurate production prediction of shale gas wells

The estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) of a single shale gas well is one of the important evaluation indicators for the scale and benefit development of shale gas. Nevertheless, due to the lack of engineering and geologic data, as well as the limitations of the existing empirical methods, the current production forecasting methods cannot make reasonable predictions for EUR. Therefore, Duong method is used as the prototype in this paper, a rapid and accurate empirical model for improved production prediction is proposed based on the historical production profile analysis of mass producing wells in Sichuan Basin. The accuracy and universality of the new model are verified by production examples in the Weiyuan, Changning, Luzhou and Yuxi blocks of the Sichuan Basin. The examples illustrate that the new model can be applied well in typical wells, and has no limitation of flow regimes for the production prediction of gas wells. In order to solve the problem of production data fluctuation and decline curve deviation caused by stimulation measures in the production process, a multi-segment production prediction model analysis method is proposed based on the improved model in this study and has been well applied in the field. Most importantly, the new model has clear physical parameters and is easy to operate. Performance of the new model based on production data is as reasonable as the modern production decline methods (including analytical model), which is better than existing empirical methods.