Maternal exposure to ambient PM10 during pregnancy increases the risk of congenital heart defects: Evidence from machine learning models

Previous research suggested an association between maternal exposure to ambient air pollutants and risk of congenital heart defects (CHDs), though the effects of particulate matter ≤10μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) on CHDs are inconsistent. We used two machine learning models (i.e., random forest (RF) and gradient boosting (GB)) to investigate the non-linear effects of PM10 exposure during the critical time window, weeks 3-8 in pregnancy, on risk of CHDs. From 2009 through 2012, we carried out a population-based birth cohort study on 39,053 live-born infants in Beijing. RF and GB models were used to calculate odds ratios for CHDs associated with increase in PM10 exposure, adjusting for maternal and perinatal characteristics. Maternal exposure to PM10 was identified as the primary risk factor for CHDs in all machine learning models. We observed a clear non-linear effect of maternal exposure to PM10 on CHDs risk. Compared to 40μgm-3, the following odds ratios resulted: 1) 92μgm-3 [RF: 1.16 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.28); GB: 1.26 (95% CI: 1.17, 1.35)]; 2) 111μgm-3 [RF: 1.04 (95% CI: 0.96, 1.14); GB: 1.04 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.08)]; 3) 124μgm-3 [RF: 1.01 (95% CI: 0.94, 1.10); GB: 0.98 (95% CI: 0.93, 1.02)]; 4) 190μgm-3 [RF: 1.29 (95% CI: 1.14, 1.44); GB: 1.71 (95% CI: 1.04, 2.17)]. Overall, both machine models showed an association between maternal exposure to ambient PM10 and CHDs in Beijing, highlighting the need for non-linear methods to investigate dose-response relationships.