Reducing risks of antibiotics to crop production requires land system intensification within thresholds

Abstract Land system intensification has substantially enhanced crop production; however, it has also created soil antibiotic pollution, undermining crop production. Here, we projected soil antibiotic pollution risks to crop production at multiple geographical scales in China and linked them to land system intensification (including arable land expansion and input increase). Our projections suggest that crop production will substantially decrease when the soil antibiotic pollution risk quotient exceeds 8.30–9.98. Land systems explain most of the variability in antibiotic pollution risks (21–66%) across spatial scales. The convex nonlinearities in tradeoffs between antibiotic pollution risk and crop production indicate that vegetable and wheat production have higher thresholds of land system intensification at which the risk–yield tradeoffs will peak than do maize and rice production. Our study suggests that land system intensification below the minimum thresholds at multiple scales is required for acceptable antibiotic pollution risks related to crop yield reduction.