Transarterial Radioembolization Can Downstage Intermediate and Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma to Liver Transplantation

BACKGROUND: Transarterial radioembolization (TARE) is an effective treatment to control tumor growth and improve survival in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The role of TARE in downstaging patients to liver transplantation (LT) is unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate the downstaging efficacy of TARE for intermediate and advanced HCC. METHODS: Intention-to-treat analysis with multistate modeling was performed. Patients moved through 5 health states: (1) from TARE to listing, (2) from TARE to death without listing, (3) from listing to LT, (4) from listing to death without LT, and (5) from transplant to death. Factors affecting the chance of death after TARE were considered to stratify outcomes. RESULTS: Two hundred fourteen patients underwent TARE. Of those, 43.9% had radiological response, 29.9% were listed, and 22.8% were transplanted. The probability of being alive without LT was 40.5% 1 y after TARE and 11.5% at 5 y. The chance of being listed was 9.4% at 1 y and 0.9% at 5 y. The probability of dying after TARE without LT was 38% at 1 y and 73% at 5 y. The overall survival of patients receiving LT was 61% at 5 y after transplant. Tumor beyond up-to-seven criteria, alfafetoprotein >400 ng/mL, and albumin-bilirubin ≥2 were associated with death. Three risk groups were associated with different response, chances of being listed, and receiving LT. Median survival was 3 y for low-risk, 1.9 y for intermediate-risk, and 9 mo for high-risk patients ( P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In intermediate and advanced HCC, TARE allows for a 44% chance of response, 30% downstaging, and 23% probability of permitting LT. Patient's and tumor's characteristics allow for risk stratification and predict survival from TARE.