Multi-scenario analysis and optimization strategy of ecological security pattern in the Weihe river basin

For many years, the Weihe River Basin (WRB) has struggled to achieve a balance between ecological protection and economic growth. Constructing an Ecological Security Pattern (ESP) is extremely important for ensuring ecological security (ES). This study employed a coupling of multi-objective programming (MOP) and the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model to project land use change (LUCC) in 2040 across three scenarios. Leveraging circuit theory, we generated ecological corridors and identified key ecological nodes, enabling a comparative analysis of ESPs within the WRB. The main results showed that: (1) The Ecological Protection (EP) scenario showed the highest proportions of forestland, grassland, and water, indicating an optimal ecological environment. Conversely, the Economic Development (ED) scenario features the greatest proportion of construction land, particularly evident in the rapid urban expansion. The Natural Development (ND) scenario exhibits a more balanced change, aligning closely with historical trends. (2) The ecological source areas in the EP scenario is 13,856.70 km