Does Gaia Play Dice? Simple Models of Non-Darwinian Selection

In this article, we introduce some simple models, based on rolling dice, to explore mechanisms proposed to explain planetary habitability. The idea is to study these selection mechanisms in an analytically tractable setting, isolating their consequences from other details which can confound or obscure their effect in more realistic models. We find that the observable of interest, the face value shown on the die, “improves” over time in all models. For two of the more popular ideas, Selection by Survival and Sequential Selection, this is down to sampling effects. A modified version of Sequential Selection, Sequential Selection with Memory, implies a statistical tendency for systems to improve over time. We discuss the implications of this and its relationship to the ideas of the “Inhabitance Paradox” and the “Gaian bottleneck.”