Vegetation cover changes in China induced by ecological restoration-protection projects and land-use changes from 2000 to 2020

Vegetation-coverage research shows China’s significant 25% contribution to global greening. Vegetation is the link between water, soil and atmosphere, making it an important indicator of changes in anthropogenic factors. Anthropogenic attribution analysis of vegetation change helps us to identify and estimate the relationship between vegetation change and major ecological projects, and their corresponding relationship may be the antecedents and consequences of vegetation dynamics. This study assessed the increment and change rate of fractional vegetation cover (FVC) in 2000–2020 in China. The influences of land types and major ecological projects were systematically compared to assess the vegetation-human nexus. China has experienced progressive greening in the study period with regional variations in patterns and causes. The FVC changes and spatio-temporal variations were induced by notable human activities such as land-use conversion, China’s afforestation programs (CAP), Ant Forest Project (AFP), and Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program (CCFP). The North region recorded the highest change rate. The area changes in cropland, grassland, and forest were the main FVC drivers. The average FVC change rate of CAP changed very high in 21 years. The AFP exerted significant impacts on FVC changes. The CCFP effectively promoted FVC improvements from the low, medium and high grades to the very high coverage grade. These comparative trends illustrated the intricate relationships between anthropogenic factors and greening. The findings could enhance the prediction and evaluation of vegetation-cover dynamics under anthropogenic changes and the implementation and management of afforestation programs.