Circuit depth scaling for quantum approximate optimization

Variational quantum algorithms are the centerpiece of modern quantum programming. These algorithms involve training parametrized quantum circuits using a classical coprocessor, an approach adapted partly from classical machine learning. An important subclass of these algorithms, designed for combinatorial optimization on current quantum hardware, is the quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA). Despite efforts to realize deeper circuits, experimental state-of-the-art implementations are limited to a fixed depth. However, it is known that problem density---a problem constraint to a variable ratio---induces underparametrization in fixed depth QAOA. Density-dependent performance has been reported in the literature, yet the circuit depth required to achieve fixed performance (henceforth called critical depth) remained unknown. Here, we propose a predictive model, based on a logistic saturation conjecture for critical depth scaling with respect to density. Focusing on random instances of MAX-2-SAT, we test our predictive model against simulated data with up to 15 qubits. We report the average critical depth, required to attain a success probability of 0.7, saturates at a value of 10 for densities beyond 4. We observe the predictive model to describe the simulated data within a $3\ensuremath{\sigma}$ confidence interval. Furthermore, based on the model, a linear trend for the critical depth with respect to problem size is recovered for the range of 5--15 qubits.