Trade-Policy Dynamics: Evidence from 60 Years of U.S.-China Trade

自给自足 经济 国际经济学 商业政策 自由贸易 加入 中国 国际贸易 贸易壁垒 政治学 欧洲联盟 福利 市场经济 法学
作者
George Alessandria,Shafaat Yar Khan,Armen Khederlarian,Kim J. Ruhl,Joseph B. Steinberg
出处
期刊:Journal of Political Economy [The University of Chicago Press]
被引量:2
标识
DOI:10.1086/733420
摘要

We study the growth of Chinese imports into the United States from autarky during 1950-1970 to about 15 percent of overall imports in 2008, taking advantage of the rich heterogeneity in trade policy and trade growth across products during this period. Central to our analysis is an accounting for the dynamics of trade, trade policy, and trade-policy expectations. We isolate the lagged effects of past reforms and the current effects of uncertainty about future reforms. We build a multi-industry, heterogeneous-firm model with a dynamic export participation decision to estimate a path of trade-policy expectations. We find that being granted Normal Trade Relations (NTR) status in 1980 was largely a surprise and that, in the early stages, this reform had a high probability of being reversed. The likelihood of reversal dropped considerably during the mid 1980s, and, despite China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, changed little throughout the late 1990s and early 2000s. Thus, although uncertainty depressed trade substantially following the 1980 liberalization, much of the trade growth that followed China's WTO accession was a delayed response to previous reforms rather than a response to declining uncertainty. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.
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