Cloud ice fraction governs lightning rate at a global scale

Abstract Lightning flash rate is strongly influenced by cloud microphysics, such as cloud ice properties, but this relationship is poorly constrained. Here we analyze 20 years of satellite-derived lightning flash rate data and cloud water data from the ERA-Interim reanalysis above continental and ocean regions at a global scale. We find a robust modified gamma function relationship between cloud ice fraction and lightning rate. Lightning rate increases initially with increasing cloud ice fraction in stratocumulus, liquid clouds. Maximum flash rates are reached at a critical cloud ice fraction value that is associated with high top, large optical thickness, deep convective clouds. Beyond the critical value, lightning rate decreases as the ice fraction increases to values representative of cirrus, ice clouds. We find consistent critical ice fraction values over continental and oceanic regions, respectively, with a lower value over the continent due to greater cloud thickness at similar cloud top height. We suggest that our findings may help improve the accuracy of lightning forecast and hazard prediction.