Efficacy of ultrasonography and color-Doppler for early prediction of hemodialysis arteriovenous fistula unassisted maturation

Background: Arteriovenous fistula (AVF) failure is a prevalent concern for patients with end-stage kidney disease on hemodialysis. Recognizing the efficacy of ultrasound Doppler in post-operative AVF evaluation, this study sought to discern the predictive capabilities of various ultrasonographic and color-Doppler metrics for early AVF outcomes. Methods: This single-center, prospective cohort study spanned 1 year and, post ethical clearance, included all patients who underwent native AVF creation surgery and were subsequently referred for standard post-operative ultrasound Doppler assessment. Parameters such as fistula size, cephalic vein area and diameter, and AVF flow velocity and rates were assessed on post-operative day 2, week 2, and week 6. These initial findings were juxtaposed with later outcomes to determine unassisted AVF results. Results: Of the initial cohort of 40 patients, 75% encountered AVF failure, whereas 25% realized successful unassisted AVF maturation. A notable observation was the significant variance in AVF flow rates as early as post-operative day 2. A threshold of >246 ml/min was indicative of successful unassisted AVF maturation, leading to a sensitivity of 80% and a specificity of 70%. Although the cephalic vein diameter on post-operative day 2 lacked a robust association with AVF outcomes, a cut-off of >3.4 mm, when combined with flow rate testing, augmented the cumulative sensitivity to 92%. Conclusion: Ultrasound Doppler stands out as a valuable quantitative imaging modality, adept at prognosticating AVF outcomes from as early as post-operative day 2. In particular, a flow rate exceeding 246 ml/min and a cephalic vein diameter surpassing 3.4 mm are salient indicators for the early prediction of successful AVF outcomes.