Distinguishing Trajectories and Drivers of Vegetated Ecosystems in China's Loess Plateau

Abstract Terrestrial ecosystems can exhibit various behaviors in response to climate change and human activities. Nonlinear and abrupt shifts in ecosystems are particularly important as they indicate substantial modifications in ecosystem structure and function, posing a threat to the provision of ecosystem services. Here we distinguish between linear, curvilinear, and abrupt shifts in ecosystem productivity from 2000 to 2020 in China's Loess Plateau. We utilize spatial Random Forest models to analyze the driving factors behind these change patterns. Our findings indicate that 84.1% of the ecosystems experienced a positive change in plant productivity, while a small proportion (2.5%) exhibited a negative change. Abrupt shifts are prevalent in both positive and negative changes in ecosystem productivity, with negative changes often manifesting as abrupt shifts (79.3%). Negative changes in plant productivity, particularly the negative abrupt shifts, are primarily associated with human activities characterized by increased nighttime light and urbanization. Land conversion to forest is linked to a curvilinear trajectory in plant productivity, characterized by nonlinear changes with acceleration. Higher water availability and a wetter environment are more likely to promote positive changes in plant productivity. Moderate warming trends contribute to abrupt positive changes in plant productivity, while high warming trends are associated with increased negative abrupt and curvilinear changes. We highlight the importance of accounting for diverse change behaviors in ecosystems for the development of targeted conservation and restoration measures.