支持向量机
计算机科学
流量(计算机网络)
期限(时间)
指数平滑
k-最近邻算法
平滑的
培训(气象学)
基线(sea)
人工智能
机器学习
数据挖掘
计算机视觉
计算机安全
量子力学
海洋学
物理
地质学
气象学
作者
Trinh Dinh Toan,Viet-Hung Truong
标识
DOI:10.1177/0361198120980432
摘要
Short-term prediction of traffic flow is essential for the deployment of intelligent transportation systems. In this paper we present an efficient method for short-term traffic flow prediction using a Support Vector Machine (SVM) in comparison with baseline methods, including the historical average, the Current Time Based, and the Double Exponential Smoothing predictors. To demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the SVM method, we used one-month time-series traffic flow data on a segment of the Pan Island Expressway in Singapore for training and testing the model. The results show that the SVM method significantly outperforms the baseline methods for most prediction intervals, and under various traffic conditions, for the rolling horizon of 30 min. In investigating the effect of the input-data dimension on prediction accuracy, we found that the rolling horizon has a clear effect on the SVM’s prediction accuracy: for the rolling horizon of 30–60 min, the longer the rolling horizon, the more accurate the SVM prediction is. To look for a solution for improvement of the SVM’s training performance, we investigate the application of k-Nearest Neighbor method for SVM training using both actual data and simulated incident data. The results show that the k- Nearest Neighbor method facilitates a substantial reduction of SVM training size to accelerate the training without compromising predictive performance.
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