Countries’ green total-factor productivity towards a low-carbon world: The role of energy trilemma

Energy security, energy equity, and energy greening are three crucial challenges (i.e., energy trilemma, ET) of a nation's energy system while achieving economic growth with the reduction of carbon emissions. Investigating the impact of ET on green total-factor productivity (GTFP) helps provide essential implications for facilitating collaborative low-carbon economy and sustainable energy development. Using the data of 142 economies spanning 2008–2018, the country-level GTFP is evaluated based on a super-efficiency Epsilon-Based Measure (EBM) model with window analysis. Then, this study analyzes how ET influences GTFP, and further examines the heterogeneous effect of ET through the dynamic panel threshold model. The results specify that ET has a positive effect on GTFP, which is robust to various econometric techniques, model specifications, alternative measurement of GTFP, carbon emission intensity as a surrogate indicator for GTFP, and covariates choices. Notably, each branch of ET is also positively related to GTFP. Further threshold effects analysis discloses the differentiated impact of ET on GTFP. When the ET exceeds its threshold, the positive impact of ET on GTFP becomes more effective. Only when GDP per capita and industrial structure are within their higher intervals will ET has a significant and larger positive effect on GTFP.