IER-START nomogram for prediction of three-month unfavorable outcome after thrombectomy for stroke

医学 列线图 改良兰金量表 溶栓 接收机工作特性 置信区间 逻辑回归 冲程(发动机) 队列 分级比例尺 内科学 曲线下面积 外科 心脏病学 缺血性中风 缺血 心肌梗塞 工程类 机械工程
作者
Manuel Cappellari,Salvatore Mangiafico,Valentina Saia,Giovanni Pracucci,Sergio Nappini,Patrizia Nencini,Daniel Konda,Fabrizio Sallustio,Stefano Vallone,Andrea Zini,Sandra Bracco,Rossana Tassi,Mauro Bergui,Paolo Cerrato,Antonio Pitrone,Francesco Grillo,Andrea Saletti,Alessandro De Vito,Roberto Gasparotti,Mauro Magoni,Edoardo Puglielli,Alfonsina Casalena,Francesco Causin,Claudio Baracchini,Lucio Castellan,Laura Malfatto,R. Menozzi,Umberto Scoditti,Chiara Comelli,Enrica Duc,Alessio Comai,Enrica Franchini,Mirco Cosottini,Michelangelo Mancuso,Simone Peschillo,Manuela De Michele,Andrea Giorgianni,Maria Luisa DeLodovici,Elvis Lafe,Maria Federica Denaro,Nicola Burdi,Saverio Internò,Nicola Cavasin,Adriana Critelli,Luigi Chiumarulo,Marco Petruzzellis,Marco Doddi,Antonio Carolei,William Auteri,Alfredo Petrone,R. Padolecchia,Tiziana Tassinari,Marco Pavia,Paolo Invernizzi,Gianni Turcato,Stefano Forlivesi,Elisa Ciceri,Bruno Bonetti,Domenico Inzitari,Danilo Toni
出处
期刊:International Journal of Stroke [SAGE Publishing]
卷期号:15 (4): 412-420 被引量:22
标识
DOI:10.1177/1747493019837756
摘要

Background The applicability of the current models for predicting functional outcome after thrombectomy in strokes with large vessel occlusion (LVO) is affected by a moderate predictive performance. Aims We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram with pre- and post-treatment factors for prediction of the probability of unfavorable outcome in patients with anterior and posterior LVO who received bridging therapy or direct thrombectomy <6 h of stroke onset. Methods We conducted a cohort study on patients data collected prospectively in the Italian Endovascular Registry (IER). Unfavorable outcome was defined as three-month modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score 3–6. Six predictors, including NIH Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score, age, pre-stroke mRS score, bridging therapy or direct thrombectomy, grade of recanalization according to the thrombolysis in cerebral ischemia (TICI) grading system, and onset-to-end procedure time were identified a priori by three stroke experts. To generate the IER-START, the pre-established predictors were entered into a logistic regression model. The discriminative performance of the model was assessed by using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). Results A total of 1802 patients with complete data for generating the IER-START was randomly dichotomized into training ( n = 1219) and test ( n = 583) sets. The AUC-ROC of IER-START was 0.838 (95% confidence interval [CI]): 0.816–0.869) in the training set, and 0.820 (95% CI: 0.786–0.854) in the test set. Conclusions The IER-START nomogram is the first prognostic model developed and validated in the largest population of stroke patients currently candidates to thrombectomy which reliably calculates the probability of three-month unfavorable outcome.
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