The global burden of osteoarthritis knee: a secondary data analysis of a population-based study

Osteoarthritis knee poses a substantial and pervasive global health challenge. The data was extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 Study database. First, numbers and age-standardized rates (ASRs) of incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of osteoarthritis knee were assessed globally and by sub-types in 2021. Subsequently, we employed a linear regression model to analyze the temporal trends from 1990 to 2021. To predict the future burden, we utilized the age-period-cohort model and the Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Furthermore, we conducted a sensitivity analysis using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model and the Exponential Smoothing model. In 2021, osteoarthritis knee accounted for 30.85 million incidence cases, 374.74 million prevalence cases, and 12.02 million DALYs cases globally, with ASRs of 353.67, 4294.27, and 137.59, respectively. Females and individuals over 50 years old were identified as high-risk populations, while higher socio-demographic index regions emerged as high-risk areas. From 1990 to 2021, incidence cases rose from 14.13 million to 30.85 million, prevalence cases from 159.80 million to 374.74 million, and DALYs cases from 5.15 million to 12.02 million, accompanied by increases in their respective ASRs. Projections using the APC model predict a continued increase in incidence, prevalence, and DALYs cases for both genders until 2046. Specifically, male incidence cases are projected to increase to 18.45 million and female incidence to 25.60 million. Similarly, male prevalence cases are projected to rise to 235.41 million and female prevalence to 365.97 million. Male DALYs cases are expected to increase to 7.52 million and female DALYs to 11.55 million. The BAPC models also indicate an upward trend in number of cases. In conclusion, osteoarthritis knee represents a formidable threat to global public health, necessitating the development of proactive and tailored strategic interventions that account for global-specific contexts. Key Points • Females and individuals over 50 years old were identified as high-risk populations. • Higher socio-demographic index regions were identified as high-risk areas. • The disease burden attributable to osteoarthritis knee increased from 1990 to 2019. • The number of deaths and DALYs cases would still increase in the next 25 years.