粮食安全
种植
产量(工程)
气候变化
中国
环境科学
生产(经济)
农业工程
代表性浓度途径
作物产量
农学
农林复合经营
农业经济学
自然资源经济学
气候模式
地理
经济
农业
生物
生态学
工程类
宏观经济学
考古
冶金
材料科学
作者
Ning Luo,Qingfeng Meng,Puyu Feng,Ziren Qu,Yonghong Yu,De Li Liu,Christoph Müller,Pu Wang
标识
DOI:10.1038/s41467-023-38355-2
摘要
Abstract Population growth and economic development in China has increased the demand for food and animal feed, raising questions regarding China’s future maize production self-sufficiency. Here, we address this challenge by combining data-driven projections with a machine learning method on data from 402 stations, with data from 87 field experiments across China. Current maize yield would be roughly doubled with the implementation of optimal planting density and management. In the 2030 s, we estimate a 52% yield improvement through dense planting and soil improvement under a high-end climate forcing Shared Socio-Economic Pathway (SSP585), compared with a historical climate trend. Based on our results, yield gains from soil improvement outweigh the adverse effects of climate change. This implies that China can be self-sufficient in maize by using current cropping areas. Our results challenge the view of yield stagnation in most global areas and provide an example of how food security can be achieved with optimal crop-soil management under future climate change scenarios.
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