Coastal ecosystem service in response to past and future land use and land cover change dynamics in the Yangtze river estuary

Climate change and anthropogenic activities are increasingly threatening estuarine and coastal zones. These effects lead to complex positive and negative feedback among sustainable development pillars of human, society, economy and environment according to the integrated sustainability perspective. Only limited studies have calculated comprehensive impact assessments of land conversions between land and sea, invasive species expansion, and inundation impacts on natural wetlands under future scenarios. To fill-in this research gap, this study aims to conduct a long-term temporal analysis (1960–2015) of land use and land cover change (LULC), and future ecosystem service value (ESV) loss for intertidal wetlands predicted in the Yangtze River Estuary (YRE). The results show that, over recent decades, impervious constructed areas and Spartina alterniflora-covered saltmarsh have increased to 10.7% and 2.61%, respectively, whereas native species saltmarshes and tidal flats have decreased to 0.04% and 1.1%, respectively. The total ESV increased significantly during 1960–2000 but significantly declined during 2000–2015. The highest total ESV was US$ 3.8 billion in 2010, considering the approximate contributions of natural and artificial wetlands. Similarly, the ESV of the S. alterniflora saltmarshes reached US$ 0.7 billion in 2015. The total intertidal wetlands area could decrease to 8071–8248/ha by 2100. The total ESV of intertidal wetland ecosystems would decrease by approximately one billion dollars between 2015 and 2050. An enhanced understanding of the economic impacts regarding coastal management, restoration, and conservation is of profound importance for improving coastal resilience, sustainable development, and adaptation of coastal societies to climate change in the Yangtze River Estuary.