Investigating hailstorm updrafts and nowcasting hail size using a novel radar-based updraft detection

Abstract Nowcasting hail size poses a major challenge in operational practice due to physical limitations of weather radar technology once hailstones are sufficiently large to enter the resonance scattering regime. Numerous radar-based hail size proxies have been derived in recent decades, but their performance is generally poor in identifying giant hail (≥ 10 cm). Using a novel thunderstorm updraft detection method, we examine the updraft characteristics of hailstorms in the U.S. Great Plains based on a NEXRAD dataset of 114 hail events between 2013 and 2023. We find that some radar-derived variables within the detected updraft are well suited for discriminating between small (1.0 - 3.0 cm) and severe (≥ 3.5 cm) hail, e.g. minimum co-polar cross-correlation coefficient in the mid-level updraft, whereas other radar metrics such as the area of reflectivity > 50 dBZ in the upper portion of the updraft suggest the presence of giant hail. However, the statistical distributions of each variable overlap for different hail sizes and there is no single metric which performs well across the entire hail size spectrum. Therefore, we trained a Random Forest model to nowcast hail size categories using a multitude of these radar metrics. The model shows promising performance for discriminating hail sizes > 5 cm but requires further refinement for smaller hail. We showcase the model’s capabilities for a set of hailstorms in the Great Plains.