A systematic review and quantitative meta-analysis of the relationships between driving forces and cyanobacterial blooms at global scale

The global expansion of cyanobacterial blooms poses a major risk to the safety of freshwater resources. As a result, many explorations have been performed at a regional scale to determine the underlying impact mechanism of cyanobacterial blooms for one or several waterbodies. However, two questions still need to be answered quantitatively at a global scale to assist the water management. One is to specify which factors were often selected as the driving forces of cyanobacterial blooms, and the other is to estimate their quantitative relationships. For that, this paper applied a systematic literature review for 41 peer-reviewed studies published before May 2021 and a statistical meta-analysis based on the Pearson's or Spearman's correlation coefficients from 27 studies. These results showed that the water quality, hydraulic conditions, meteorological conditions and nutrient levels were often considered the driving forces of cyanobacterial blooms in global freshwater systems. Among these, meteorological conditions and nutrient level had the highest probability of being chosen as the driving force. In addition, knowledge of the quantitative relationships between these driving forces and cyanobacterial blooms was newly synthesized based on the correlation coefficients. The results indicated that, at a global scale, meteorological conditions were negatively related to cyanobacterial blooms, and other driving forces, such as water quality, hydraulic conditions and nutrient levels, were positively related to cyanobacterial blooms. In addition, the measurement indicators of these driving forces had diverse forms. For example, the nutrient level can be measured by the concentration of different forms of nitrogen or phosphorus, which may lead to different results in correlation analysis. Thus, a subgroup meta-analysis was necessary for the subdivided driving forces and cyanobacterial blooms, which had a better accuracy. Overall, the synthesized knowledge can help guide advanced cyanobacteria-centered water management, especially when the necessary cyanobacterial data of targeting waterbodies are inaccessible.