Long-term trajectories of frailty phenotype in older cancer survivors: a nationally representative longitudinal cohort study

Abstract Background Frailty is a dynamic process associated with adverse health outcomes. However, little is known about the long-term trajectories of frailty in older cancer survivors. Objectives To describe the trajectories of frailty phenotype over time amongst older cancer survivors and examine the socio-demographic and health-related predictors of different trajectories. Design Population-based longitudinal cohort study. Setting Community-dwelling older adults in the United States. Subjects 1,763 older adults who were diagnosed with cancer from the National Health and Ageing Trends Study. Methods Frailty was assessed by the Fried Frailty Phenotype. The group-based trajectory model was used to identify the trajectories of frailty. Multinomial logistic regression analyses were used to examine the socio-demographic and health-related predictors of different trajectories. Results Three frailty trajectories were identified; 52.8% of older cancer survivors had a sustained low risk of frailty over time, 25.0% had a low frailty risk at baseline but the risk increased steadily, and 22.3% had a high frailty risk with a slight change in the observed period. Older cancer survivors were at a high-risk frailty trajectory if they were older, female, African American, had lower education status, had lower annual income, were underweight or obese, self-rated poorer health, had more chronic conditions and difficulties with activities of daily living (ADL), and had worse cognitive functions (P < 0.05). Conclusions Long-term frailty trajectories in older cancer survivors are heterogeneous. This study helps identify patients at high risk of sustained or deteriorating frailty and has the potential to inform targeted frailty management strategies addressing modifiable factors identified (e.g. body mass index, ADL).